How “Never Waste a Good Crisis” Applies to Public Company CEOs
Winston Churchill has been credited with saying, “Never waste a good crisis.” The idea is that, in times of turmoil, you can make big…
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Author Archives: John Banks
“Black Swan” Funds Demonstrate Why Shorts Go Best with Longs
For so-called “Black Swan” funds, March 2020 was the best month in years. And yet, after a multi-year stretch of poor performance, a lone…
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A Looming Meat Shortage Demonstrates the Fragility of Supply Chains
Supply chains are a marvel of modern commerce. The links of a supply chain can span tens of thousands of miles, traversing whole continents and…
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Bayesian Priors and the Trouble with Antibody Tests
On the COVID-19 medical front, the hot new thing is antibody tests. The idea is that, if a person tests positive for antibodies, it…
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The Next Wave of Layoffs will be White Collar — and People Working From Home
On March 31 we said “The Odds of a V-Shaped Recovery are Zero.” The analysis still holds — and the case has only…
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Heed the Message of the Crude Oil Forward Curve
To quickly recap recent commentary, we explained on April 17 why the oil price could go negative. And then, on April 23, we explained…
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How a Trade Went Spectacularly Wrong — Sending Oil to Negative $37.63
We recently explained “How the Oil Price Could Fall Below Zero.” The piece felt…
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Unsettling News from L.A. to Sweden (and Japan to Singapore)
It’s possible that more than 400,000 people in Los Angeles county (population 10.1 million) have already contracted COVID-19. The estimate comes from a new…
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Have all the CEOs and Venture Capitalists Gone Crazy? (Spoiler Alert: No)
When it comes to re-opening the economy, Americans are cautious. A new poll of 900 registered voters, conducted April 13-15 by NBC News and…
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Bitcoin Doesn’t Need Aircraft Carriers
“How many divisions does the pope have?” The question (possibly apocryphal) was asked rhetorically by Joseph Stalin, the iron-fisted dictator, to emphasize the military…
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