News

Can the U.S. Economy Support Oil Prices at $200 Per Barrel?

Oct 11, 2021

This week, JPMorgan Chase forecasted a scenario where oil prices top out at $200 per barrel or higher. But is such a price outcome even possible? And what would it mean for stocks?

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Central Banks are Confirming a 71-Year-Old Prophecy from Austrian Economics

Mar 03, 2020

On Monday, Feb. 2, 2020, the Dow Jones industrial average roared higher by nearly 1,300 points. The single-day rally was the Dow’s best day in more than a decade. And the Dow was only one part of it. Stocks in general were up big on Monday in the anticipation of central bank stimulus. The story is well known: When things…

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China is Using its Currency to Stockpile Copper and Grains

Jan 25, 2021

In the TradeSmith Decoder model portfolio, we have a large position in a top-tier copper miner that was up more than 190% as of last Friday’s close. For that we say: “Thank you, China.” There are other crucial factors driving the price of copper higher — and grains, too — but China is a big one. China has been using…

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China’s Coronavirus Stats Can’t Be Trusted

Apr 01, 2020

The coronavirus data coming out of China is manipulated, and possibly outright false. We know this, in part, because a Chinese health official has admitted as much. There have also been questions and red flags around China’s data reporting from very early on. This matters because China’s coronavirus statistics — the number of cases, the number of fatalities, and the…

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China’s Property Problems Come Home to Roost

Sep 21, 2021

China is facing a potential Lehman Brothers moment with the impending failure of its second-largest property developer. Let me explain the saga of a company called Evergrande, and the possible impact of a looming debt default.

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Confrontation Between the U.S. and China is Beginning to Heat Up

Mar 22, 2021

Relations between the United States and China are on a downward slope, and tensions are on an upward slope. This has been true for a while now, enough so to fuel talk of a “new Cold War” between the U.S. and China, alternately known as “Cold War 2.0.” The original Cold War played out between the United States and the…

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Congratulations: You Survived the Wildest Market Conditions Since 1929

Mar 17, 2020

Have you ever wondered what the 1929 stock market crash was like? Have you ever imagined how it might feel, as an investor, to endure 1929-level panic and turmoil? Have you ever wondered if you could handle it? Well, you don’t have to wonder anymore, because it just happened. The extreme volatility and fear displayed on Monday broke all records…

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Congress Needs Remote Legislating Capabilities As Soon As Possible

Mar 27, 2020

Without remote legislation capabilities, there are plausible scenarios where Congress loses its ability to legislate, or even to function. Imagine a scenario where the government is frozen in place — and no new emergency bills or measures can be passed. The risk of a non-functioning government, in the midst of the worst global crisis in generations, is now staring us…

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Coronavirus Coming to the United States

Coronavirus is Coming to the United States — Here’s What to Watch

Feb 26, 2020

Coronavirus is coming to the United States. “It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore,” Nancy Messonnier, Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), said in a Wednesday briefing, “but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen.” Immediately after the NCIRD briefing was released, the stock market…

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Covid Winter is Coming

Nov 13, 2020

On March 6, 2020, we wrote in these pages that 80 million Americans were likely to be infected by COVID-19, and that more than 400,000 Americans could die as a result. At that early date, many did not believe it. Many thought it impossible. And yet, here we are. At the time of this writing, more than 242,000 Americans have…

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