I Do Not Envy This Man

May 07, 2021

I’m starting to feel sorry for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This week, many of his allies offered serious contradictions to the Fed’s plans for the economy. I want to talk about what this means for your money.

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In a Time of Fiscal Dominance, the Market Cares About Spending More Than Who Wins

Oct 09, 2020

On Aug. 10, TradeSmith Daily explained two terms every investor should know: Financial Repression and Fiscal Dominance. To briefly summarize them, financial repression is when a central bank deliberately keeps interest rates low — ideally below the rate of inflation — to inflate away the value of debt. This is a means of coping when a nation’s debt load becomes…

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Intel Crosses the Rubicon

Oct 19, 2021

Intel appears to be “crossing the Rubicon” with its decisive effort to take on some of the world’s fastest-growing semiconductor manufacturers.

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Is $2 Trillion Worth of Stimulus a “Nuclear Bomb” — or a Mattress in a Volcano?

Mar 26, 2020

A $2 trillion emergency relief bill passed in the U.S. Senate by unanimous vote on Thursday. The bill is likely to pass in the House, and the president is likely to sign it. The final ink is not dry as of March 26. And yet we can say, with a high degree of confidence, that roughly $2 trillion worth of…

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Is AT&T Ever Going to Escape Its Rocky Acquisition Past?

Oct 22, 2021

Let’s talk about AT&T, which faces a lot of scrutiny in the wake of this quarter’s earnings report.

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Is Nikola the Theranos of Electric Vehicle Start-Ups?

Sep 23, 2020

You may remember Theranos, the blood-testing startup run by Elizabeth Holmes. Theranos was a fraud, but the company reached a multi-billion-dollar valuation by suckering some of the most powerful people in Silicon Valley and Washington, D.C. Theranos had an “all-star” board of directors that was almost cartoonish in its weight and stature. At various points along the way, the Theranos…

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Is The Fed’s Inflation Hourglass Running Out of Sand?

Oct 28, 2021

Next week, the central bank will meet for two days to discuss tapering its massive balance sheet and the timing of its next interest rate hike. So today, I want to offer a preview of what to expect.

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Inflation Expectations are Materializing in the Bond Market

Jan 12, 2021

If you want the most elegant case for why inflation is a risk in 2021, it might just be the trajectory of M1 over the course of the past year…

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Inflation Is the Fed’s Own Problem, and It Is Too Slow with the Solution

Feb 24, 2022

The Fed greatly expanded its balance sheet – essentially printing money – for years through a process called quantitative easing (QE). It started in the aftermath of the housing bust and financial crisis 15 years ago. And while the economy recovered, the Fed never really stopped printing money for long.

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Is Ark Innovation’s Cathie Wood Repeating Bill Ackman’s $4 Billion Mistake?

May 21, 2021

Every few years, a new money manager takes the investment world by storm. This manager rides a previous success or prediction into the headlines. Investors pour capital into his or her funds. Today, the “rock star” money manager under pressure is Cathie Wood, the CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and co-founder of Ark Invest.

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