It’s Time to Take a Bite of the Apple

By tradesmith-research-team

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By Lucas Downey, Contributing Editor, TradeSmith Daily

They say you shouldn’t try to catch a falling knife — buying stocks in a sharp downtrend. And it’s hard to disagree with that.

But we should also acknowledge that most of the time, traders trying to do this are wearing a blindfold.

Imagine seeing an incredible stock go on fire sale. You want to buy it, but don’t know when. You know better than to catch a falling knife with a blindfold, so you hold off.

But then, a bullish data-driven signal appears… alerting you that NOW is the time to buy the dip.

That signal is what takes off the blindfold. And that’s what we’re going to delve into today.

Once called the “most important stock in the market”, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been beaten to a pulp in 2024… falling 12%.

The level of selling is off the charts.

But deep inside this meltdown is an extremely bullish omen that rarely comes along.

If you’re like many, betting on further downside for the iconic iPhone maker… you may want to rethink your plans.

History says a monster lift should be coming soon.

But, don’t take my word for it. Let’s see the proof.

Apple is Grossly Underperforming the Market in 2024

While markets surge week after week, poor old Apple is doing the opposite. It’s down 15% from recent highs, and 12% in 2024 alone:

I can hear my trend-follower buddies calling this chart a “no touch” — or a “pass” until the selling pressure stops.

But that’s a flawed way of looking at stocks.

You see, pullbacks on great companies are not only common, they disguise a hidden opportunity. You just need to know what look for. And that’s where today’s historical study comes into play.

You see, Apple shares did something ultra rare this year. The stock has fallen an eye-popping seven days in a row.

That may not seem that crazy. But what if I told you this has only happened 14 times in the last… 40 years?

That puts some much-needed perspective on this selloff.

Here’s what it looks like in chart form. Every instance when AAPL shares fell seven days in a row is marked in red:

Using the old eye-ball test, those red markers look like great dips to buy. But we can’t rely on eyeballing for a trade setup.

Nope… We need to see the evidence.

Using one of our latest internal modules at TradeSmith, we can analyze the historical forward performance after these rare selloffs and get a framework for what to expect.

In short, history proves that now is NOT the time to keep betting against the world’s second-largest company.

Below reveals the outstanding average performance for AAPL after this rare signal triggers. On average, when AAPL shares have fallen seven days in a row over the past 40 years:
  • 2 weeks later, the stock gains 6%…
  • A month later sees a 6.9% juicer…
  • Be bold for two months, and the gain rips to 11.3%.

Look, fretting about short-term weakness on a fantastic company is missing the bigger picture. Sometimes you gotta take a bite even when the apple looks rotten. These pullbacks are few and far between for Apple…and they tend to be fruitful.

This is why having cutting-edge software, like TradeSmith, can only kickstart your portfolio.

Let evidence-based research bring hidden opportunities your way in 2024…


Lucas Downey
Contributing Editor, TradeSmith Daily