ATVI versus TTWO versus RBLX

Sep 19, 2021

Pandemic-induced changes in behavior flipped the world of entertainment on its head last year.

In 2020, it is estimated that video games brought in more revenue than movies and North American sports combined. Wow!

LikeFolio data confirms a massive surge in video game adoption.

While these levels are tempering in 2021, every major video game trend tracked remains higher versus 2019, especially first-time gaming Mentions.

These trends were bolstered in late 2021 when Xbox and PlayStation launched new gaming consoles… and many games released updated versions with better graphics.

The question is, how are the major players in gaming faring now?

New user adoption rates have slowed for traditional game producers Activision (ATVI) and Take-Two (TTWO).

Both companies are recording double-digit declines in Purchase Intent, even versus 2019.

Meanwhile, new entrant Roblox (RBLX) continues to show growth (although it is slowing). Roblox demand is +112% higher versus 2019 and +2% higher YoY.

From a Consumer Happiness perspective, Take-Two is outperforming peers. It boasts the highest Consumer Happiness at 68% positive and has improved by 6 points YoY. Improvements are driven by a positive experience with the NBA 2k gaming experience.

For Roblox, it is not unusual to see a small decline in Happiness alongside a surge in user adoption. Most Negative Sentiment Mentions are related to outages, but Roblox’s slowdown in growth is something to watch.

Activision’s recent downturn in Happiness is tied to the company’s release of “Call of Duty: Vanguard” beta.

It will be essential to track the Call of Duty brand to gauge adoption as this version rolls out to the masses in November.

While none of these companies is releasing Earnings for some time, TTWO does maintain a slight edge versus ATVI.

We’ll be monitoring in the next few weeks for any changes in demand or consumer macro trend behavior as summer ends.

As always, LikeFolio members will be the first to know when we spot big opportunities in video game stocks.

Andy Swan,
Founder, LikeFolio