This Stock is up Over 1,000%… and It’s Not Done Yet

Aug 14, 2021

More than a year ago, a hedge fund client asked us for powerful consumer insights related to a new energy drink: Celsius (CELH).

I’ll admit it, I had never heard of this brand before.

But our research team dug in.

And we were amazed with what we found.

Consumer Buzz (blue line) was building.

Consumer demand was accelerating and Consumer Happiness was extremely high — above 80% positive.

We added Celsius to coverage with a Bullish rating when shares were under $6.

But we didn’t stop there.

Even after shares rallied, we doubled down, issuing a Bullish opportunity alert in April when shares were below $60.

Now the stock is up more than 1,000% from our original bullish report, and from the consumer demand side of things, it looks like this company may just be getting started.

And its competitors know it…

The Niche Energy Drink Stealing Market Share from Monster (MNST)

A couple of weeks ago, Monster Energy posted a solid report, driven by strength in the energy drink category: Q2 net sales increased 33.6% to $1.46 billion.

But something caught our ear on the company’s earnings call, related to another player in the energy drink industry

According to Nielsen, “Sales of Monster increased 59.9%. And its share was 28.1%, down 7.8 share points versus the same period a year ago. Red Bull sales increased 109.4%, and its share was 16.6%, up 0.4 points. Celsius’ sales increased 133.1%. And its share increased 1.8 points to 14.3%.

We’ve been keying into this growth for some time.

But what is the data showing now?

Celsius (CELH) is Still Heating Up

Now LikeFolio data shows continued strength in consumer demand.

Demand growth in 21Q2 accelerated: +221% YoY (versus +182% YoY in 21Q1).

Meanwhile, Consumer Happiness is extremely high: 84% positive.

You can see this outperformance on the Outlier Discovery Grid above.

What’s going on?

Celsius has carved itself a niche for health-conscious consumers looking to improve energy, a booming consumer macro trend.

In fact, Celsius labels itself as a “fitness drink.”

Products are marketed as “thermogenic,” meaning they help to increase your heart and metabolic rate by raising your body temperature… The name makes sense, right?

Tweets often feature mentions of consumers drinking these beverages prior to a workout, as part of a healthy lifestyle.

While we can’t predict logistical hurdles related to aluminum can supply/cost, consumer demand for Celsius is hot.

And we’re still Bullish.

The company reported 21Q2 results last week:

  • Revenue boomed: +117% YoY, driven by strength in North America
  • Celsius brand growth is outpacing the generic energy drink category
  • Product placement is expanding, now exceeding 100,000 locations

CELH shares whipsawed post-report due to these perceived logistical hurdles (and corresponding empty shelves) but settled in slightly higher.

This muted reaction serves as yet another opportunity for long-term investors equipped with powerful consumer insights.

We’ll be tracking this in real time. But for now, momentum is building… and LikeFolio members will be the first to know when we spot another similar opportunity.

Andy Swan,
Founder, LikeFolio