Know Exactly When – and How Much – a Stock Could Move with Predictive Alpha

By Mike Burnick

Our software development team has just launched a series of exciting new enhancements for our powerful and proven Predictive Alpha system.

If you’re not already familiar with Predictive Alpha, it is TradeSmith’s exclusive, AI-powered program that gives you real-time price projections for thousands of stocks, funds, and ETFs – forecasting their movements over the next 21 trading days.

And now, we’ve just launched a new and improved version of the Predictive Alpha algorithm. It provides even more accurate stock price forecasts – down to the penny – with more detail than ever before.

So today, let me walk you through these new cutting-edge enhancements – so you’ll be ready to make the most of Predictive Alpha yourself, and ready to get started identifying potential winning stocks for your own portfolio.

New Models and Improved Accuracy Enhance Predictive Alpha

As one of the headline updates to our predictive algorithms, we’ve upgraded the Predictive Alpha system to use two different types of AI working together – in what’s known as an ensemble model – bringing the potential to deliver even more accurate stock price forecasts: 

  • One model focuses on the bigger picture moves a stock might follow, projecting its expected price trend by analyzing longer-term factors.
  • The second model takes a closer look at day-to-day price action. It looks at short-term trend changes and market volatility, helping the algorithm spot shorter-term price moves and potential risks. 

By combining both of these predictive AI models, Predictive Alpha has the power to give you more a reliable view of current market trends – and more importantly, what’s likely to happen next to each of the stocks you analyze. 

While our model still shows price forecasts 21 trading days out from the present, we’ve now added the ability for the system to generate price projections for each day.  

In total, you now have access to 21 individual projections, and by hovering over the projection line you can see the projection for any of the 21 days, as shown in the chart of the SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY) below:

Even better, Predictive Alpha also identifies the most accurate price forecast within that 21-day period – as what we call the “Prime Projection Date.” 

Now, let’s go to the website and take a closer look.

There are several ways Predictive Alpha subscribers can access this powerful data.

For the quickest access to the system’s powerful insights, Simply log into your TradeSmith Finance account to access your Dashboard. Then, simply scroll down to the Predictive Alpha widget about halfway down the page:

In this window, you’ll be presented with a search bar to scan a ticker of your choice with the Predictive Alpha algorithms – along with tabs to your quick view.

You can select the Options tab to search for high-quality options trade opportunities for a ticker of your choice, or simply click on the Top Bullish or Top Bearish tabs – located on the top right— to find the best stocks in each category based on our system’s current assessments.

Despite the difficult market recently, I’m an eternal optimist — so I selected the Top Bullish projections shown above. For each stock, you’ll see all the key data you’d want, including several new fields we recently added:

  • Prime Projection Date: our most accurate price projection for each stock,
  • Projected Target: the forecasted price target,
  • Expected Move: percentage gain expected,
  • Historical Directional Accuracy: the past precision of directional forecasts (up or down),
  • Historical Target Accuracy: how often the stock has historically hit its target price and,
  • Projected Range: the high-to-low price range projected from now to the projection date

Take Gilead Sciences (GILD),a biotech stock circled in the Top Bullish list above.

Predictive Alpha currently expects GILD to:

  • Reach a projected target price of $109.85 by May 19, 2025 — about a month from now,
  • Representing a +5.08% projected move from the current price,
  • Show a historical directional accuracy of 74.22%,
  • And better yet, a historical price target accuracy of 82.81%.

Now, let’s be clear: There’s no way to know with perfect accuracy what will happen tomorrow — especially in today’s volatile stock market. I wish we could tell the future so cleanly! But Predictive Alpha price projections can give you a higher degree of confidence in both the direction a stock is likely to move, and better yet, by how much. And that can tip the scales to help you make smarter, more effective decisions.

To view even more projections, head to the bottom left of this Dashboard window. Simply click on the link highlighted below to view the Predictive Alpha Basket and find even more stock price projections, as shown below:

I’m only displaying the top seven stocks sorted by expected move here, due to space constraints — but there are dozens here. You’ll find a wider variety of Predictive Alpha price forecasts, some with shorter time frames than the standard 21-day outlook, which you can spot by looking at the Prime Projection Date (PPD) column on the right.

For example, Confluent (CFLT), highlighted above, has a PPD of May 1, only 12 trading days — and just over one calendar week – away from now.

The PPD feature is new data that wasn’t available before. Simply click on the highlighted ticker symbol link and you’ll be presented with all the details shown below:

CFLT’s 9-day forecast period is considered the Prime Projection Date because it has the highest directional accuracy of any of other time frame, at 71.09%.

Directional Accuracy is the probability that the stock ends higher (for bullish projections) or lower (for bearish projections.) More important, the Historical Target Accuracy measures how often the stock price hits its target at any time during the projection period. 

In this case, CFLT has a 71.09% Directional Accuracy over nine days. Directional accuracy varies by stock, with an overall average for stocks rated by Predictive Alpha at 57.53%. 

Even better, CFLT’s stock price has touched its projected price target 81.25% of the time within 9 days. This value also varies by stock, with the average historical target accuracy rate across all stocks is 60.30%. 

So, in plain English this means CFLT has a 71.09% probability of moving up and 81.25% chance of reaching its $23.66 target (+11.87%) by May 1!

Finally, you can also run a TradeSmith Screener to find Predictive Alpha bullish and bearish stock projections – all by simply choosing from among the Predictive Alpha filters found in the screener menu, including:

  • Prime Outlook (bullish or bearish),
  • Prime Expected Move,
  • Days to Prime Projection Date and,
  • Predictive Alpha Options Zones, for potential options trades.

Mike Burnick’s Bottom Line: The upgraded Predictive Alpha strategy is more powerful than ever, giving you real-time actionable stock price targets right down to the penny. But you don’t have to take our word for it — you can see for yourself why our new Trade Information Tab, updated daily. It provides key data points to help you make well-informed trading decisions.

Note: For more on these exciting new updates to the Predictive Alpha algorithm, TradeSmith is having a few webinars later this month.

On Monday, April 28, Michael Carr will present Predictive Alpha Prime: The Secrets Behind An-E’s 21-Day Forecasts. This will be a higher-level version of the April 21 presentation, and he will also answer questions. The recording will be available to attendees immediately afterwards. Click here to register for this event.

And for additional Predictive Alpha walkthroughs: on Tuesday, April 22, Product Education Specialist Kristin Magenst will host a bootcamp webinar called Getting Started with Predictive Alpha Prime. You can register for this event by clicking here.

Good investing,

Mike Burnick
Senior Analyst, TradeSmith

P.S. As you can see, Predictive Alpha has already been transforming how traders gain insights into stock price movements by offering real-time, AI-driven projections. But as mentioned before, Predictive Alpha has just evolved – and that’s just the beginning.

Meet An-E, short for Analytical Engine – the AI algorithm that powers Predictive Alpha. This breakthrough system builds on everything Predictive Alpha has done to the next level. And after three years of development, An-E now forecasts stock prices up to a month in advance, giving you unparalleled insight into the market’s potential movements.

What makes An-E so special? It’s not just the ability to forecast future stock prices. It’s the way this AI continuously improves with every data point it analyzes. With this cutting-edge machine learning, An-E becomes smarter and more accurate over time.

These forecasts can help you avoid potential losses on the horizon and even guide you toward making big gains. TradeSmith’s recent presentation, The AI Predictive Power Event, went into great detail about how this breakthrough system works and how it can help you navigate today’s volatile market.

You can catch the replay here to learn more about how An-E can enhance your trading strategy.