Inside the Edge for a Year-End Market Move
After a healthy rebound from the latest pullback, the market is flashing signs of strength – and the timing is no coincidence.
Seasonality can be a huge factor at this time of year. We’re stepping into one of the most reliable recurring tailwinds of the entire year. Historically, December kicks off a five-month period of above-average returns for the S&P 500. And December also has the distinction of being the month when more new highs are recorded than any other month of the year.
According to the historical data, the four major stock indexes – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 – have consistently made more annual highs in December than any other month of the year… and by a wide margin.
In fact, all four of these popular stock indexes have notched more than 40% of their yearly all-time highs during December, based on data going back to 1950. The Nasdaq leads the way with 46.3% of its new annual highs recorded this month.
With that bullish seasonal backdrop in mind, let me take you to one of my top TradeSmith Screeners. It can help you filter for stocks with the most upside potential in the month ahead based on two of our most powerful strategies: Predictive Alpha and Trade Cycles!
To access the TradeSmith Screener, simply click Invest from the main menu and select the Screener tab. The Screener tool is available to TradeSmith Platinum members, Premium-level (or higher) subscribers to Ideas by TradeSmith, and those with Trade360 or TradeSmith Essentials.
Here’s a screenshot of the filters I used below:
Keep in mind, I have full access to TradeSmith tools thanks to my Platinum account, so you may not see every feature or filter shown here. But if you’d like to add them, simply contact our Customer Care team at 888-623-0858 to find out more.
Now, let’s get started. Simply click on + Add Filters at the top left to build this screener with the following filters:
Trade Cycles by TradeSmith:
The first four filters are based on the seasonal trading patterns identified by our Trade Cycles algorithms, which scans thousands of stocks on the market.
Optimal Seasonal Pattern Only:
Set this to Yes to screen only for stocks with a Seasonality Pattern Accuracy Rate greater than 80% and a Seasonality Pattern Average Return of at least 4% over the past 15 years.
I also select the filter for Days to Seasonality Pattern Start Date and set at (<30) less than 30, to find bullish optimal seasonal patterns coming up over the next month.
Predictive Alpha:
Our AI-powered Predictive Alpha algorithm uses economic data (such as interest and inflation rates), fundamental data (including profits and valuation ratios), and technical insights (like relative price strength and moving averages).
It crunches the numbers on nearly 3,000 securities and in a split-second ranks each based on the expected directional move over the next 21 trading days or less – and by how much it is projected to move. The resulting Prime projection gives you the expected percentage move, target date, and target price right down to the penny for every stock we rank!
Working together in our screener, the Seasonality and Predictive Alpha strategies combined can deliver a higher level of confidence in both the trend direction and the likely move for any stock.
When I ran this screener yesterday, I got 11 stock results for further review. The small number of results is because it’s a focused screen that includes only stocks that qualify for both our Trade Cycles Seasonality and Predictive Alpha strategies.
Here’s a screenshot of the results:
Simply click on the highlighted icon in the Seasonality Patterns column to view details about each stock’s upcoming seasonal pattern statistics.
For instance, precious metals miner McEwen (MUX) has a bullish seasonal pattern starting Dec. 14 and running through Dec. 29, as shown below.
MUX has a historical accuracy rate of 80% and has delivered average returns of +7.46% during this period over the last 15 years. That translates to an annualized return of 181.54% when owning MUX just during this two-week bullish window over the past 15 years.
Now, scroll over to the Expected Move column, MUX is also projected to move up 6.91% to a target price of $20.09 by Jan. 5, 2026.
So, our Trade Cycles Seasonality and Predictive Alpha strategies are both expecting MUX to move higher over the next month. Now, you can add MUX to your watch list for further research!
Mike Burnick’s Bottom Line: Stocks are now entering a bullish seasonal period of the year. And this TradeSmith Screener can provide an extra edge by leading you toward stocks that are primed for upside potential according to both our Trade Cycles Seasonality and Predictive Alpha strategies.
Good investing,
Mike Burnick
Senior Analyst, TradeSmith
P.S. As you can see, having the right tools at your fingertips can make a dramatic difference – especially during a powerful seasonal window like the one we’re entering now.
And for my money, the Platinum-level access is well worth it to have these tools available.
With the major upgrades we rolled out during out 20th Anniversary earlier this year, uncovering high-probability trades has never been easier. Just a few winning moves over the next year can more than pay for this VIP membership.
As we head into the final month of the year – with markets poised for meaningful movement – it’s the perfect time to consider making the jump to Platinum if you haven’t already.
And there’s something else you should know…
Before a major change rolls out in 2026, TradeSmith’s CEO, Keith Kaplan, is making one final offer to give you every product TradeSmith has launched since he became CEO – plus pre-authorized complimentary access to $40,000 worth of planned product releases coming next year.
Keith explains everything in this important video, as the curtain closes on our 20th Anniversary. Not only that, but he also reveals a radical shift that could impact all TradeSmith members in 2026.
Don’t miss your chance to see what’s coming – and how to lock in the newest told as we build them. Get the full details here.