The theory was that stocks and bonds are typically non-correlated asset classes. That’s fancy Wall Street jargon for: When stocks zig, bonds zag. And that was mostly true for many decades. But not anymore.
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What led the market into this sea of bearish sentiment? Aside from the inflation, interest rate, and growth worries listed above, some of America’s favorite stocks are disappointing investors.
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The good news is, looking at the hard evidence myself, I would say those calls are premature. The bad news is, there are signposts pointing to higher odds of a recession ahead.
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The predominant theme of this era has been debt. Governments, corporations, and consumers have all taken on more and more debt over time. And the higher debt levels go, the greater the impact of a given increase in interest rates.
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Research shows that one of the best ways to inflation-proof your investments is with commodities. The only problem is that commodity futures contracts have zero dividend yield and can be difficult to trade.
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At this point an overwhelming majority of global investors declared that the Russian stock market was simply “uninvestable,” according to Bloomberg.
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Tech and growth will disappoint in the years ahead — but other areas of the market will shine.
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The “fear factor” of impending doom due to an inverted yield curve has been so thick in the financial media lately that you can cut it with a knife.
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The U.S. economy created 678,000 new jobs last month alone, with the unemployment rate dropping to just 3.8%. In fact, the American labor market is very tight right now as we experience the worst labor shortages in decades.
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There is no way around this; inflation at 40-year highs will not disappear automatically, and inflation is now the No. 1 concern and pain point for American voters. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a 10-year low this month because of inflation, with sentiment levels comparable to those of the Great Recession post-2008.
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