TradeSmith Daily

May 2020

How Silicon Valley is Helping in the Virus Fight

May 4, 2020John Banks

As we have explained in these pages, America — and the world — is at war with a virus. The novel coronavirus is an invisible foe that has penetrated all national defenses. It has established beachheads in every major city and every state, and it has resulted in more American casualties than the 19-year Vietnam War. As Balaji Srinivasan has pointed out, the virus has even disabled an American aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt. No foe has been so

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Bitcoin is the Purest Form of “Hard Money” Ever Created

May 5, 2020John Banks

Bitcoin could be one of the greatest public investment opportunities in all of recorded history. That’s not hyperbole. We are serious about this — and we come to that view having studied Bitcoin intently for more than two years, and global markets overall for more than 20. There are venture-capital opportunities and private-investment opportunities that can deliver multi-thousand percent returns. But these opportunities are not public in the sense of being widely available and easily accessible for any investor at

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Warren Buffett is Worried About the Future

May 6, 2020John Banks

If you had invested broadly in the U.S. stock market on Aug. 30, 1930 — the day Warren Buffett was born — it would have taken 20 years to get your money back. That gloomy anecdote was shared by Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder’s meeting on May 2. Normally the annual Berkshire meeting is a huge shindig — it is nicknamed “Woodstock for Capitalists” — with investors, journalists, and Buffett and Munger

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In a Real Apocalypse, Bitcoin Beats Gold

May 7, 2020John Banks

A few weeks ago, your mild-mannered TradeSmith Daily editor did something out of character. At a private outdoor shooting range, we received tactical training instruction — from a professional firearms instructor, who is also a family friend — on the proper handling and use of a 12-gauge pump-action shotgun. The outing was fun, but the purpose was serious. We were taught how to handle the shotgun inside a house — or even in a hallway if need be. The training

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What’s Going on With Sweden?

May 8, 2020John Banks

While the Western world zigged, Sweden zagged. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and most of Europe — including Sweden’s Nordic neighbors, Norway and Finland — issued shelter-in-place orders to deal with COVID-19. Sweden did not. Meanwhile, in country after country, the virus is wreaking havoc. And yet Sweden appears to be floating above it all. No shelter in place, no problem. How is this possible? Due to this paradox, “Be like Sweden” has become a rallying cry for

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The Federal Reserve Does Not Have Magic Powers

May 11, 2020John Banks

Jerome “Jay” Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is not a wizard, and the Federal Reserve does not have magic powers. We point this out because — based on arguments we are hearing as to why everything will be “back to normal” soon — a fair chunk of analysts and investors appear to think otherwise. Of course, they don’t spell out the “magic” part in so many words. But a popular v-shaped recovery argument relies on magical thinking just

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The Bond Market Does Not See Quick Recovery — In Fact It Sees the Opposite

May 12, 2020John Banks

There is no V-shaped economic recovery. We won’t see a U-shape, either. Instead, there is greater likelihood America’s recovery will have an L-shape — a flat crawl after a hard drop. And that’s only if we’re fortunate, and do a better job in the virus fight. If we get the next part wrong, America could wind up looking like Europe or Japan, with a descent into negative interest rates. And if we really get it wrong, we’ll face a second

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The Mechanics of Negative Interest Rates

May 13, 2020John Banks

Earlier this week we discussed the bond market’s ominous message, while emphasizing a forecast for negative U.S. interest rates. Scott Minerd is talking about negative interest rates, too. This is notable because Minerd, the chief investment officer for Guggenheim Investments, oversees $270 billion worth of assets. In a note published on May 10, Minerd said the following: I see the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 25 basis points or lower very soon, with a possibility that it

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