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Sentiment Surveys Are “Junk” – Here’s the Real Consumer Story

Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).

 

Andy and Landon Swan are our masters of consumer and investor sentiment here at TradeSmith.  

By watching data across web traffic, app downloads, social media, and even podcast engagement, they have a better read on this key data point than anyone else. 

So when I asked Andy whether his data backs up the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading – one of the most-watched sentiment gauges in the world, now near record lows – I was shocked by his answer… 

“I think it’s complete junk.” 

See, surveys ask people how they feel. But the Swans track what people say they’re doing.  

When you look through that lens, the consumer isn’t in nearly as rough shape as the main survey leads you to believe. 

Beyond that, Andy and Landon’s Social Heat Score aggregates every relevant piece of consumer and investor sentiment data for hundreds of individual companies.  

Each company gets a Main Street score for what customers think and a Wall Street score for what investors think.  

When the two sit far apart, the Swans pay attention. 

During our conversation, we went through one of the top divergences on their list right now.  

When we recorded, the company scored an 80 on Main Street and a 13 on Wall Street.  

Customer interest is climbing while investors are selling. 

In their view, that makes this pick an essential stock to watch right now.  

Watch my full interview with Andy and Landon here:

In the interview, Andy and Landon explain how they came to work with Marc Chaikin, who has spent 60 years telling investors to ignore market noise.  

Now, with the help of their Social Heat Score, he’s finally found a way to tune in to it. 

Marc paired his Power Gauge with the Swans’ Social Heat Score. The Power Gauge rates a stock’s financial strength, technicals, and institutional buying. The Social Heat Score reads online customer sentiment. 

In their backtest, the two systems lined up on 432 stocks. Of those, 260 – 6 out of every 10 – went on to double or more at their peaks.  

And at The Stock Tsunami Event, Marc, Andy, and Landon show how it works and share three free stock ideas: two to buy, one to avoid.  

They also introduce the Stock Tsunami Detector, which names the top five stocks where both systems agree, every single month. 

Watch The Stock Tsunami Event here. 

To building wealth beyond measure,

Michael Salvatore signature

Michael Salvatore  

Editor, TradeSmith Daily 

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