Take the Guesswork Out of Earnings Season with Our Market Calendar

Earnings reporting season is well underway, and so far, the results have been good — but perhaps not quite good enough.

About one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter 2025 results, with the tech heavyweights reporting this week. At this point, 73% of stocks reported actual earnings per share (EPS) above expectations.

That sounds good — and it is, on an absolute basis — but it is below the average EPS “beat rate” of 77% over the past five years. Still, actual S&P 500 results are in aggregate 10% above estimates, topping the five-year average EPS surprise of 8.8%.

At the sector level, it’s no surprise that Technology and Communication Services (which includes Facebook parent Meta, Alphabet parent Google, and Netflix, among other high-growth stocks) are delivering some of the best results.

What may be a surprise, however, is that two Defensive Sectors are leading the hit-parade this quarter with better-than-expected sales and EPS growth.

Health care profit growth is up 36.7% year-over-year, leading all other sectors — while stodgy old utilities are growing profits at a 10.7% clip. By comparison, overall S&P 500 year-over-year EPS growth is 10% so far.

It’s nice to see stocks outside the Magnificent 7 delivering robust earnings growth. This is a positive sign that stock market leadership is broadening to more than just the Mag 7 favorites.

As a quick reminder to TradeSmith members: you can quickly and easily keep tabs on earnings reporting season with our handy Market Calendar tab shown below.

As you can see above, you can choose from a weekly or monthly calendar view, that gives you a chronological list of stocks scheduled to report on a day-by day-basis.

Simply click on the weekly or monthly tabs listed on the left under Market Calendar to change the view. Then scroll down and select Earnings on the third tab from the left.

This valuable resource includes data that covers the EPS estimates versus actual EPS, the surprise factor (both positive and negative), and the revenue results compared to expectations.

Personally, I like to scan the Calendar view for stocks that beat both EPS and revenue estimates – the bigger the positive surprise, the better. From there, I create a watch list to monitor how these stocks perform post-earnings.

If you don’t see the Market Calendar when you login to your own TradeSmith account- and would like to – simply call us at 888-623-0858 to add this valuable resource!

Getting back to earnings, this week, 41 more S&P 500 companies are set to report – including four of the Magificient 7 heavyweights. Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday after market hours, while Apple and Amazon are due to report Thursday after the close.

These heavyweights will have a very big impact on this make-or-break earnings reporting season – especially as Wall Street analysts are getting nervous about trade tariffs dragging on profit results for the rest of this year.

In the chart above, you can see the change in earnings estimates compiled by Citigroup. It’s clear that analyst estimates have been moving in the wrong direction, as shown in the growing red bars on the far right.

S&P 500 profit growth estimates for the first quarter are down from 12.2% at the beginning of this year, to just 7.2% last week. Granted, actual results are coming in better than expected, with year-over-year at +10%.

Still, that’s 2% less than what was expected just a few months ago. And earnings growth estimates for the rest of this year have been getting cut back too.

It’s important to remember that the market reacts more to changes in forward-looking profit forecasts than to the actual sales and profit results themselves.

And over the past four weeks alone, nearly 70% of S&P 500 earnings revisions have been to the downside – compared to just 30% upward revisions.

Recall, the last time the S&P 500 had a sharp decline in earnings estimates – even without a contracting economy – was 2022. That year, stocks still dropped 35% due to lower profit expectations alone.

Mike Burnick’s Bottom Line: By the end of this week, the S&P 500 will be roughly at the halfway point of first quarter earnings reports, with still more to come over the next two to three weeks. As always, I’ll be keeping a watchful eye out for positive surprises – but even more so for the all-important changes to estimates, and you should, too.

Good investing,

Mike Burnick
Senior Analyst, TradeSmith

P.S. While it’s encouraging to see pockets of positivity this earnings season – particularly from sectors outside the usual tech giants – it’s also clear that the market’s tone is shifting. Analyst estimates are being cut. Market leadership is in flux. And investor sentiment feels more fragile by the day.

In fact, some of the most well-known names in the Magnificent 7 are now showing signs of serious strain, even as overall earnings results come in above expectations. Between strong headline numbers and weakening leadership – this could be a warning sign of bigger changes ahead.

Which brings us to an urgent and timely development…

With all the uncertainty unfolding across markets right now – from falling EPS estimates to rising concerns over trade policy – investors need to be more vigilant than ever.

That’s why my colleague over at InvestorPlace, Luke Lango – who was named the #1 stock picker during the chaos of 2020 by TipRanks, outperforming more than 15,000 analysts and Wall Street veterans – is someone you’ll want to pay close attention to as market conditions grow more unpredictable.

And right now, he’s issuing what may be the biggest warning of his career. He believes a $7-trillion shock could hit the market as early as May 7, driven by a major new policy move.

To help you prepare, Luke is hosting a special online briefing this Thursday, May 1 at 7 p.m. EST: The 2025 Summer Panic Summit.

If you invest money in the market – especially in tech or growth stocks – you need to hear what he has to say. You’ll also learn a new class of AI-driven companies he’s calling the “MAGA 7” – stocks he believes could lead the next wave of market leadership.

Click here now to automatically RSVP and watch his urgent video update.

This could be your opportunity to turn a year of volatility into one of the most financially profitable.