The Question I Receive Most About TradeSmith
I travel to a lot of financial conferences and speak on a lot of panels. Today, I'll share the most common question I get - and the answer.
Read nowTradeSmith Daily
April 2021
Parting Thoughts on a New Era
The first quarter of 2021 — which closed on March 31 — was the worst quarter for U.S. Treasury bonds since 1980. The last time treasuries looked this ugly, Paul Volcker was Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Jimmy Carter was president. Prior to last quarter, bond prices at the long end of the curve (the 10-year and 30-year) had not fallen that far, that fast, in more than 40 years; that in turn means back-end yields had not risen
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I Don’t Usually Do This
Rather than my usual essay, I’m sharing a rare, “no holds barred” interview I did with Dan Ferris on the Stansberry Investor Hour podcast last fall. During this wide-ranging conversation, Dan and I dove into many of my favorite Money Talks topics, including my early financial troubles and how I solved them… why I’m so passionate about investor education… how I invest my own money today… why I personally use and believe in TradeSmith tools… and much more. I hope you enjoy it as much as I
Read nowMarch 2021
The Saudis are Underestimating U.S. Shale — For the Second Time in Less Than a Decade
In early December 2020, TradeSmith Decoder turned aggressively bullish on energy stocks. We bought a sizable basket of fossil-fuel-related energy names at that time — eight in all — anticipating a recovery-fueled share price surge as a result of resurgent oil demand. That overall basket did quite well, providing multiple instances of either triple-digit gains or close to triple-digit gains, in the space of less than three months. But we recently took partial profits across the board on that energy
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ARK’s Latest Tesla Target is Completely Nuts (With Zero Incentive to Be Rational)
Tesla’s share price — which closed 24% off its highs yesterday — saw a nice little bounce (though still down 24%) after ARK Investment management released its latest Tesla price targets for 2025. The targets are not just unrealistic, they are laugh-out-loud unrealistic, almost to the point of being nonsensical. They offer three levels: “Bear case”: TSLA reaches $1,500 by 2025 (123% gain from the March 22 close). “Expected value”: TSLA reaches $3,000 by 2025 (348% gain from March 22
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Breaking Down the ‘Big Market Delusion’ in EV Stocks
Wild and weird developments continue to unfold in the electric vehicle (EV) space. For instance, Elon Musk gave himself a new official title this week: “Technoking of Tesla.” Zach Kirkhorn, the Chief Financial Officer of Tesla, was also given a new title: “Master of Coin.” It sounds like a joke, but it isn’t. Or rather, Musk’s actions might be a joke — played on his own shareholders — but the titles were actually filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission
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Imagining Bitcoin as a FANG Stock
In the TradeSmith Daily for Oct. 12, 2020, we wrote: If you haven’t bought Bitcoin for the first time yet, the odds are good that you will. The question is whether you will do it sooner — and be glad that you did — or do it later and wish you had acted much earlier. Bitcoin as priced in U.S. dollars (BTC/USD) closed at $11,563 the day those words were broadcast. As we write today on March 18, 2021 —
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The ‘Bitcoin is Bad for the Environment’ Argument is an Intellectually Dishonest Red Herring
Whereas a cat has nine lives, Bitcoin appears to have 400-plus and counting. 99Bitcoins, a crypto site, has a “Bitcoin Obituaries” page that tracks media declarations of Bitcoin’s death. There have been 403 “Bitcoin is dead” instances as of this writing — 10 of them in 2021 alone — with the oldest dating to Dec. 15, 2010. And yet, for the second time in less than a month, Bitcoin has surpassed $1 trillion in market cap. To benchmark Bitcoin against
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