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February 2020

This Could Be the Year Big Business Goes Remote (and stops shaking hands)

February 19, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

The coronavirus outbreak may now be “at the brink” of a global pandemic. So says Anthony Fauci, the director of the U.S.-based National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, as reported by Axios. The virus, officially dubbed COVID-19, has killed more than 2,000 people and infected more than 75,000 within China — assuming numbers from the Chinese government are trustworthy. If not, the true tally could be far worse. Outside China, there have only been five reported deaths as of

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The Coronavirus Threat to Markets Has Not Passed

February 14, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

As of Feb. 14, 2020, the stock market doesn’t appear worried about the coronavirus outbreak. This applies not just to the U.S. market — where the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq composite touched all-time highs this week — but to markets around the world. The MSCI World ETF, which represents the global stock market and trades under the symbol URTH — like the planet Earth, get it? — touched all-time highs this week, too. Meanwhile the MSCI

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The Coronavirus Outbreak Looks Far More Serious Than SARS

February 7, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

As of this writing on Friday, Feb. 7,  markets are catching up to the coronavirus outbreak — but investor awareness is still far behind. The situation could be far more serious than most realize. “Dow drops 200 points,” a CNBC headline reads, “on concern coronavirus will dramatically slow China’s economy.” The odds that China’s economy will “dramatically slow” are virtually 100% now. It would take a miracle to prove otherwise. The Chinese government has effectively shut down large sections of

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January 2020

Brexit is Finally “Done” — as Britain Heads into the Great Unknown

January 31, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

For three-and-a-half years — ever since the historic referendum vote on June 23, 2016 — Britain has been in a state of emotional turmoil over Brexit. The painful saga of whether to accept Brexit, what kind of Brexit it would be, and what kind of deal would be negotiated seemed to drag on interminably, like a dental procedure that never ends. But now, finally, Brexit is here. On Jan. 31 at midnight Brussels time — which, amusingly, is 11 p.m.

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How the Coronavirus Outbreak Could Trigger a China Meltdown — and What to Watch

January 30, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

The China coronavirus outbreak continues to worsen: The death toll in China is 170 as of January 2020, with more than 7,700 infected within China. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed a person-to-person transmission on American soil. Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, and possibly Hong Kong have reported person-to-person transmissions. The World Health Organization (WHO) is debating whether to officially declare an international public health emergency. As a preventive measure, Russia is closing off

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The China Coronavirus and Deadly Echoes of SARS

January 23, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

Wuhan, China is a city of 11 million people. That makes it bigger than any U.S. city, including New York and Los Angeles. Huanggang, a city of 7.5 million, is just 35 miles from Wuhan, and has more people than all but one metro area in the United States — New York City. China has dozens of cities with gigantic populations. But these two cities matter because, as of this writing, the Chinese government has put them on lockdown, thanks to

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The U.S.-China Phase One Signing is Bullish for Emerging Markets — and Bearish for the Dollar

January 15, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

As this article goes to press, the United States is preparing to sign a “phase one” trade deal with China. This is a big victory — for China. That makes it a victory for Chinese stocks, emerging market assets, and international stocks in general. Which also makes it bearish for the U.S. dollar. There are multiple reasons why China is the big winner in this Phase One signing. Two of the biggest “tells” are, first, the willingness of the White

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New Decade Career Advice: Work at Taco Bell

January 10, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

Do you happen to know a young graduate looking for work in the American Midwest or Northeast? Are they feeling uncertain about their job direction or career path? Maybe they should work at Taco Bell. That sounds like the lead-in to a joke, but isn’t, because this Jan. 9 headline from Bloomberg is real: “You Can Now Make $100,000 Working at Taco Bell.” The $100K is no joke either. Yum! Brands, the corporate parent of Taco Bell, is having trouble

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The Big Winner from U.S.-Iran Tensions Could be China

January 6, 2020TradeSmith Research Team

There are many potential losers from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. But a big likely winner is China. The drama unfolding with Iran does at least three big things for China. First, it increases the likelihood a U.S.-China trade deal goes China’s way. Second, it shifts the spotlight away from Hong Kong. And third, it increases the strength of China’s geostrategic position — by weakening the position of the United States. The sudden progress on the “Phase One” version of the U.S.-China

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December 2019

The Super-Rich Are Going Bananas: Evidence of a Mania

December 9, 2019TradeSmith Research Team

Are we living in a time of mania? Quite possibly yes. To give you a spoiler for where we’re going, new evidence has come in suggesting an investment mania is at hand. It comes in the form of a $120,000 banana slapped on a wall with duct tape. Before being slapped on the wall, the banana was worth whatever an ordinary banana is worth. After attaining its $120K status, which in part involved the wall and the duct tape, someone

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November 2019

Bitcoin and Einstein’s Theory of Relativity

November 22, 2019TradeSmith Research Team

China giveth, and China taketh away — when it comes to cryptocurrencies at least. Just last month, the entire cryptocurrency market surged, gaining $50 billion worth of market cap in 48 hours or so, on a pro-blockchain speech from Xi Jinping, the president of China. Few had expected China’s leader for life to give such a powerful personal endorsement. The impact on the crypto space was electrifying, with Bitcoin leading the way. Heading into the pre-Thanksgiving weekend, though, China-related news

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Hong Kong’s Rage is the Harbinger of a Multi-Decade U.S.-China Cold War

November 18, 2019TradeSmith Research Team

On June 4, 1989, the Tiananmen Square Massacre occurred. On that dark day, the Chinese government declared martial law and sent in tanks and troops to put down student-led demonstrations. Westerners recall the iconic image of “tank man,” the lone protester standing in front of a line of tanks. What is less well-known is that, in the massacre that occurred less than 24 hours earlier, somewhere between several hundred and several thousand protesters were killed (and thousands more wounded). Three

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