A Fed Rate Hike May Be in the Cards on Sept. 16, and 36 Years of History Says the Stock Market Won't Be Happy (at Least Initially)

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has prioritized price stability as inflation reaches a three-year high of 4.2%. There's a 50-50 chance the FOMC will raise rates on Sept. 15-16. Historical data shows stocks initially decline after Fed rate hikes, but recover strongly within a year—averaging 12.5% gains one year after quarter-point hikes.

09/06/2026, 11:06 AM • The Motley Fool

The Stock Market Has Done This Only 2 Times Since 1871 — and Both Times Ended Badly. Could Trump’s Policies Raise the Risk of Another Market Meltdown?

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, its highest level since the dot-com bubble peak, occurring only twice before in 155 years—both times preceding major market downturns. Trump's tariff policies, military actions driving oil prices higher, and Treasury bond strategies are raising inflation concerns and increasing the odds of Fed rate hikes. However, strong corporate earnings growth and different market dynamics may mitigate historical patterns of decline.

09/06/2026, 3:12 AM • The Motley Fool

QuoMarkets Introduces Weekend XAUUSD Trading as Demand for Continuous Market Access Grows

QuoMarkets has launched GOLD247, a new weekend trading instrument that allows eligible clients to trade gold (XAUUSD) on Saturdays and Sundays via MetaTrader 5. The product addresses growing demand for extended market access as gold continues to play a central role in global financial markets amid inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong central bank buying. GOLD247 operates independently from QuoMarkets' standard weekday XAUUSD offerings.

09/05/2026, 3:27 AM • GlobeNewswire

The U.S. Economy Just Added 162,000 Jobs in August, Blowing Past Estimates: That's Both Good and Bad News for the Stock Market.

The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple economist estimates of 53,000, with broad-based gains across restaurants, government, education, and manufacturing. However, the strong jobs report increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September from 50% to 62.4%, which spooked investors concerned about higher borrowing costs and recession risks. While the healthy labor market is structurally positive long-term, near-term market sentiment remains negative due to rate hike concerns.

09/04/2026, 11:32 AM • The Motley Fool

Fed Governor Chris Waller Just Significantly Upped the Stakes for the Sept. 11 Inflation Report. It Could Decide Whether There is a Rate Hike at the Fed's Upcoming Meeting

Fed Governor Chris Waller stated that the August inflation report (releasing Sept. 11) will likely determine his vote on whether to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. If inflation shows continued progress toward the 2% target, he would support holding rates steady; if inflation comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike. With three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of a hike, Waller's potential support could shift the committee's decision, making the inflation data a critical tiebreaker.

09/03/2026, 12:41 PM • The Motley Fool

The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Nearly Doubled, Courtesy of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh -- Here's What He Just Said

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 28 significantly increased market expectations for a September interest rate hike, with odds jumping from 35% to 60%. Warsh emphasized that inflation, running above the Fed's 2% target for 65 months, is the central bank's predominant focus and stated the Fed must be confident inflation is moving toward its objective 'at sufficient speed.' This hawkish stance has spooked Wall Street, as rate hikes could slow the AI-driven market rally by increasing borrowing costs.

09/01/2026, 4:06 AM • The Motley Fool

"We Have Work to Do": Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Expresses Concern Over Inflation in Closely Watched Jackson Hole Speech

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, expressing concerns that underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved despite recent softer inflation reports. Warsh stated the Fed must be confident inflation is moving toward its 2% target at sufficient speed, otherwise "we have work to do." His comments immediately increased market expectations for a September rate hike from 35.5% to 57.5%, signaling potential monetary tightening ahead.

08/28/2026, 12:35 PM • The Motley Fool

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Job Just Got Much Easier. Here's What's Likely Next for the Stock Market As a Result.

Recent weak jobs data and moderating inflation have significantly reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, easing pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. This is positive for the stock market, particularly growth and AI stocks that are sensitive to interest rates. However, investors should remain cautious as rate hike probabilities remain elevated for later in 2026 and early 2027, with geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially pushing inflation higher.

08/17/2026, 4:24 AM • The Motley Fool

July Inflation Data Came in as Expected, Lowering the Odds of a Fed Hike in September Yet Again

July's inflation data came in line with expectations, with CPI rising 0.1% monthly and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% year-over-year. Combined with a weaker-than-expected jobs report, market odds of a Fed rate hike in September have declined to approximately 38%, down from 48%, with a 62% probability the Fed will hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

08/12/2026, 11:35 AM • The Motley Fool

The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Plunged, but the Federal Reserve's Job Just Became Infinitely More Challenging

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has dropped from 67% to 44% following a disappointing July jobs report that showed 23,000 job losses instead of expected gains. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult decision: raising rates could worsen the fragile job market, while holding steady risks allowing Trumpflation to become more entrenched in the economy. The Fed is caught between supporting employment and maintaining price stability.

08/12/2026, 4:06 AM • The Motley Fool

The Federal Reserve Just Released Its August Inflation Forecast, and It Could Put the FOMC on a Collision Course for Its September Meeting

The Federal Reserve's August inflation forecast shows potential reacceleration in core inflation, with monthly core CPI projected at 0.2% for July and 0.27% for August. This data could deepen divisions within the FOMC ahead of its September 15-16 meeting, where a rate hike is now considered a toss-up with roughly 55% probability. The inflation estimates could fuel both hawkish and dovish arguments, potentially leading to a split committee decision.

08/09/2026, 7:08 PM • The Motley Fool

Stock Market Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve

Three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates in July, signaling the potential start of a new tightening cycle. With PCE inflation sticky above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, traders expect rate hikes beginning in September 2026. Historically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have fallen an average of 10% and 12% respectively within three months following the first rate hike in a tightening cycle, suggesting investors should prepare for potential market corrections.

08/09/2026, 4:12 AM • The Motley Fool

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Plays the Hawk But May Have a Dove Up His Sleeve

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has publicly taken a hawkish stance on inflation, but recent comments suggest a more dovish approach. At the July FOMC meeting, rates were held steady, and Warsh hinted at using alternative inflation metrics like trimmed-mean PCE that would show inflation closer to the 2% target. Market expectations for rate hikes have shifted significantly, with the probability of a September rate hike dropping from 82% to 61%, while the likelihood of holding rates steady more than doubled to 39%.

07/31/2026, 5:21 PM • The Motley Fool

All Eyes Are on Kevin Warsh: 1 Reason the Federal Reserve's Actions Don't Matter to Long-Term Investors.

The article argues that long-term investors should ignore Federal Reserve policy decisions and leadership changes, as the S&P 500 has delivered 749% total returns over the past 20 years regardless of who leads the central bank. Instead of focusing on Fed commentary, investors should build diversified portfolios of high-quality stocks that can navigate macroeconomic changes.

07/29/2026, 12:10 PM • The Motley Fool

1 Unstoppable Growth Stock That Could Soar if a Bear Market Is Coming

Interactive Brokers is positioned to benefit from market volatility, reporting strong Q2 2026 results with 34% growth in daily average revenue trades, 30% increase in client accounts to 5.19 million, and 67% year-over-year growth in margin loans totaling $108.5 billion. Total revenue climbed 28% to $1.9 billion with accelerating momentum. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 29.1 based on 2027 earnings estimates, offering potential upside even if the broader market enters bear territory.

07/29/2026, 6:30 AM • The Motley Fool