Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Job Just Got Much Easier. Here's What's Likely Next for the Stock Market As a Result.

Recent weak jobs data and moderating inflation have significantly reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, easing pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. This is positive for the stock market, particularly growth and AI stocks that are sensitive to interest rates. However, investors should remain cautious as rate hike probabilities remain elevated for later in 2026 and early 2027, with geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially pushing inflation higher.

08/17/2026, 4:24 AM • The Motley Fool

July Inflation Data Came in as Expected, Lowering the Odds of a Fed Hike in September Yet Again

July's inflation data came in line with expectations, with CPI rising 0.1% monthly and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% year-over-year. Combined with a weaker-than-expected jobs report, market odds of a Fed rate hike in September have declined to approximately 38%, down from 48%, with a 62% probability the Fed will hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

08/12/2026, 11:35 AM • The Motley Fool

The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Plunged, but the Federal Reserve's Job Just Became Infinitely More Challenging

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has dropped from 67% to 44% following a disappointing July jobs report that showed 23,000 job losses instead of expected gains. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult decision: raising rates could worsen the fragile job market, while holding steady risks allowing Trumpflation to become more entrenched in the economy. The Fed is caught between supporting employment and maintaining price stability.

08/12/2026, 4:06 AM • The Motley Fool

The Federal Reserve Just Released Its August Inflation Forecast, and It Could Put the FOMC on a Collision Course for Its September Meeting

The Federal Reserve's August inflation forecast shows potential reacceleration in core inflation, with monthly core CPI projected at 0.2% for July and 0.27% for August. This data could deepen divisions within the FOMC ahead of its September 15-16 meeting, where a rate hike is now considered a toss-up with roughly 55% probability. The inflation estimates could fuel both hawkish and dovish arguments, potentially leading to a split committee decision.

08/09/2026, 7:08 PM • The Motley Fool

Stock Market Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve

Three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates in July, signaling the potential start of a new tightening cycle. With PCE inflation sticky above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, traders expect rate hikes beginning in September 2026. Historically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have fallen an average of 10% and 12% respectively within three months following the first rate hike in a tightening cycle, suggesting investors should prepare for potential market corrections.

08/09/2026, 4:12 AM • The Motley Fool

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Plays the Hawk But May Have a Dove Up His Sleeve

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has publicly taken a hawkish stance on inflation, but recent comments suggest a more dovish approach. At the July FOMC meeting, rates were held steady, and Warsh hinted at using alternative inflation metrics like trimmed-mean PCE that would show inflation closer to the 2% target. Market expectations for rate hikes have shifted significantly, with the probability of a September rate hike dropping from 82% to 61%, while the likelihood of holding rates steady more than doubled to 39%.

07/31/2026, 5:21 PM • The Motley Fool

All Eyes Are on Kevin Warsh: 1 Reason the Federal Reserve's Actions Don't Matter to Long-Term Investors.

The article argues that long-term investors should ignore Federal Reserve policy decisions and leadership changes, as the S&P 500 has delivered 749% total returns over the past 20 years regardless of who leads the central bank. Instead of focusing on Fed commentary, investors should build diversified portfolios of high-quality stocks that can navigate macroeconomic changes.

07/29/2026, 12:10 PM • The Motley Fool

1 Unstoppable Growth Stock That Could Soar if a Bear Market Is Coming

Interactive Brokers is positioned to benefit from market volatility, reporting strong Q2 2026 results with 34% growth in daily average revenue trades, 30% increase in client accounts to 5.19 million, and 67% year-over-year growth in margin loans totaling $108.5 billion. Total revenue climbed 28% to $1.9 billion with accelerating momentum. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 29.1 based on 2027 earnings estimates, offering potential upside even if the broader market enters bear territory.

07/29/2026, 6:30 AM • The Motley Fool

The Federal Reserve Should Raise Interest Rates Today, but It Won't for One Fundamental Reason

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates on July 29, 2026, despite rising inflation pressures from energy costs and 'Trumpflation,' because the FOMC operates reactively based on backward-looking economic data rather than proactively. While June Core PCE data won't be released until after the meeting and headline inflation has only recently shown signs of reacceleration, a rate hike is more probable at the September FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's elimination of forward-looking guidance adds uncertainty to the decision.

07/29/2026, 4:06 AM • The Motley Fool

Will New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Shock the Market and Deliver a Surprise Rate Hike at the Fed's July Meeting?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's July FOMC meeting concludes on July 29 with market participants debating the likelihood of a surprise rate hike. While some FOMC members favor a hike and betting markets show a 31.5% probability, analyst Bram Berkowitz argues a rate hike is unlikely given recent inflation slowdown, political pressure from President Trump, and potential geopolitical developments that could ease energy prices.

07/28/2026, 10:17 AM • The Motley Fool

The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here's Why

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting has surged from 10.7% to 34.7% in one week, driven by three factors: deteriorating U.S.-Iran peace talks threatening oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, persistent broad-based inflation with Core PCE at 3.4% (highest since October 2023), and inflationary pressures from AI data center buildouts. A rate hike could threaten the stock market's AI-driven rally, as higher borrowing costs may slow the debt-financed AI infrastructure expansion.

07/24/2026, 4:06 AM • The Motley Fool

Despite Falling Oil Prices, There's Now a 73% Chance of an Interest Rate Hike by September -- Here Are the 2 Culprits to Blame

The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by September 16 has surged from 26% to 73% despite falling oil prices. Two main culprits are driving inflation: spillover effects from the Iran war into the broader economy through supply chain disruptions and higher production costs, and the AI infrastructure build-out causing GPU and memory/storage prices to skyrocket. Core PCE inflation reached 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, marking 63 consecutive readings above the Fed's 2% target.

07/15/2026, 4:06 AM • The Motley Fool

If the Fed Hikes Interest Rates in 2026, History Says This Is the Best Move Investors Can Make Now

With the Federal Reserve likely to hike interest rates in 2026 under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the article advises investors to ignore market timing and focus on building diversified portfolios of high-quality stocks. Historical data shows the S&P 500 has delivered 319% total returns over the past decade across various rate environments, supporting a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

07/13/2026, 6:24 AM • The Motley Fool

CME Group Is Launching Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX Futures Contracts on July 27. Here's the Investment Case.

CME Group will launch single-stock futures contracts for Tesla and SpaceX on July 27, offering highly leveraged trading tools with up to 100x magnification. While these instruments carry significant risk with unlimited loss potential, they can be useful for experienced traders to hedge existing positions or make leveraged bets. Most retail investors should avoid these complex derivatives.

07/09/2026, 11:32 AM • The Motley Fool

Stock Market Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve. History Says a Big Drop Could Follow.

The Federal Reserve now expects at least one interest rate increase in 2026, reversing earlier expectations for rate cuts. Historical data shows that the previous four rate-increase cycles since 1999 coincided with stock market corrections, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining an average of 10% and 15% respectively in the three months following the first rate hike. Higher interest rates reduce stock valuations and increase borrowing costs, potentially pressuring equities.

07/01/2026, 4:12 AM • The Motley Fool