Don’t Hate Us
At LikeFolio, we specialize in understanding what makes consumers tick.
By keying into trends, purchase habits, and sentiment on social media, we’re able to get ahead of major shifts in consumer behavior well before the market catches on.
In fact, connecting the dots between changing consumer macro trends and publicly traded companies can result in enormous opportunities for investors.
And the tides are always changing.
Right now, one major shift is underway… and we’re starting to see the ripple effects creep into company-level mentions.
What are we talking about?
Workers are Heading Back into the Office
Consumer mentions of returning to a physical office began ramping in late March and continue to show signs of acceleration.
These mentions have increased +39% QoQ on a 90-day moving average, but have increased +42% on a 30-day moving average.
In contrast, “working from home” mentions are continuing to normalize.
Not only are “working from home” mentions -5% lower on a QoQ basis, they’re -58% lower YoY.
You can almost feel the pendulum swinging.
So, we know consumer behavior is shifting.
How could this shift impact the companies on our radar?
Let’s look at a potential WINNER and LOSER from this shift.
Logitech Growth Can’t Keep Up the Pace
Logitech was a major lock-down winner.
The company provided consumers with essential products to outfit remote offices as they set up new work-from-home bases.
You can see these Purchase Intent mentions plotted on the green line below, exploding at the onset of COVID-19.
Now, we’re watching demand fall off… steeply.
Consumers are no longer building out home offices. And many are returning to functional physical offices… with extra supplies at home on deck.
While this shift is stealing the wind from Logitech’s sails, it’s propelling another company forward.
Are Morning Commuters Boosting Spotify Demand?
There’s one small element of working in an office that is also making a comeback: the morning commute.
Mentions from consumers discussing their morning commute have increased +30% YoY.
Furthermore, morning commute mentions featuring a reference to Spotify have increased +39% YoY in the same time frame, outpacing the generic trend.
But it’s about more than just the morning commute. As behaviors “normalize,” consumers are shifting back into some routines.
And you can see this lifting consumer demand for Spotify’s music platform as a whole:
In addition, Spotify continues to exhibit strength in a major area for potential revenue growth: Podcasting.
The moral of this story?
The ability to connect the dots between macro trends and publicly traded companies can give investors a major edge.
We’ll be closely monitoring the trends and companies presented today for opportunities for LikeFolio members.
If these trajectories continue, the market may be in for some big surprises… but not you.
Andy Swan,
Founder, LikeFolio