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When “Don’t Fight the Fed” Becomes “Don’t Fight the Fed Chairman”

May 19, 2020

Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said extraordinary things in a May 13 speech. And to make sure his points were heard, Powell reiterated them on a May 17 60 Minutes interview. The “extraordinary” part came from the context. Under normal circumstances, a central bank never gives policy advice to the government. Nor does a central bank chief…

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Why is Jeff Bezos, the Founder-CEO of Amazon, Stepping Down?

Feb 04, 2021

Jeff Bezos, the founder-CEO of Amazon, announced this week that he was stepping down. This immediately caught our attention, as TradeSmith Decoder has held a stake in AMZN since April 2020. We’ve traded around the position multiple times, sometimes adding, sometimes booking partial profits. As of the Feb. 3 close, the core position is up more than 50%. For Bezos…

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Why the Outbreak is Like a Biological EMP Attack

Mar 02, 2020

Last week, the markets experienced true panic. The S&P 500 saw its fastest-ever 10% correction from all-time highs; the 30-year U.S. treasury bond yield fell to all-time lows on safe-haven buying; and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, saw a bigger intra-month spike than it did in October 2008. The source of fear…

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Will the Chinese Government Kneecap Tesla?

Feb 11, 2021

Tesla investors face many risks. One of the largest — and one of the least talked about — is China.   Tesla has an extraordinary relationship with the Chinese government. Thanks to this relationship, Tesla enjoys privileges and perks no other American company has received. The question is how long the relationship will last. That question, in turn, is tied to…

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Why a New Commodity Supercycle Could Now Be Underway

Jan 14, 2021

Goldman Sachs thinks a new commodity supercycle could be underway. We think they might be right. If they are in fact right — which is easily possible — base metals like copper, along with other commodity staples widely used in construction, vehicles, and home appliances, could be looking at price gains that stretch out over a decade, or even multiple…

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